Geospatial Analysis of Land Use/Cover Change and Land Surface Temperature for Landscape Risk Pattern Change Evaluation of Baghdad City, Iraq, Using CA–Markov and ANN Models

Understanding future landscape risk pattern change (FLRPC) scenarios will help people manage and utilize natural resources. In this study, we have selected a variety of anthropogenic factors as parameters for FLRPC assessment. Land use/cover (LUCC) land surface temperature (LST) are regarded significant that resulted in large-scale environmental changes. Result analysis the previous LUCC from 1985 to 2020 showed construction water body (WB) increased by 669.09 183.16 km2, respectively. The study continues predict 2030 2050, which result has shown large use conversion occurred during prediction period. addition, LST forecasting illustrated maximum minimum 38 °C 15 °C, be 40.83 26.25 future, Finally, used weighted overlay method analysis, applies analytic hierarchy process techniques evaluation. demonstrated Baghdad City is low-risk medium-risk high-risk categories while AL BL very-high-risk categories. Meanwhile, WB NG always been safe, falling into very-low-risk 2050. Therefore, successfully assessed metropolitan area made recommendations urban development more resilient, sustainable development.